Strength of Ancient Civilizations in Post-COVID-19 World

Over more than 2,000 years, contacts and exchanges between India and China have lasted in trade, economic, literary, cultural and philosophical spheres. Historical contacts between the two ancient civilizations go back to the 2nd century B.C. There was a clear sea route from Guangdong to Kanci (now Kanchipuram in southern India). Goods shipped to India mainly included gold and silk fabrics and those brought to China mainly consisted of gems, crystal, and glassware.

One of the most significant events in the history of India-China cultural exchange is the introduction of Buddhism to China. The pagoda was learned from India and later on constructed in various forms in China where Indian astronomy, calendar and medicine were also introduced.

In the past, political and diplomatic contacts between India and China were largely conducted through sea routes. The Yuan Dynasty (1271-1368) and various Indian kingdoms sent envoys to each other. In early 15th century, China further extended its maritime navigation. The seven expeditions of Zheng He (1371-1433) to the Western Ocean served to expand their interaction with visits to a number of places in India.

Imperialist expansion into Asia profoundly impacted the age-old relationship between the two civilizations. Notions of division of labor and specialization attempted to justify colonialism in India and the unequal treaties in China. The drain of wealth made the once-richest countries the poorest in the world.

Post-World War II global rules led to trade, capital and technology dependence, and decision-making authority of multilateral bodies remains largely in Western hands. The West, however, began to make mistakes. Jimmy Carter rightly observed that the United States spent billions of dollars on pointless wars while China invested heavily in high-speed railways, highways, ports, and airports.

The 2008 financial crisis was the first time that China and India showed the way with good investment during a global crisis while the West put resources back in the financial sector to enable bankers to reap even higher profits.

The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed economic life in every country. “The world economy will go into recession this year with a predicted loss of global income in trillions of dollars. This will spell serious trouble for developing countries, with the likely exception of China and the possible exception of India,” according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

As ancient civilizations, China and India now share responsibility in pursuit of global well-being in a more equal post-COVID-19 world.

Clash of Ideas

The pandemic has highlighted the structural flaws of the West, particularly in the previous imperial powers. Since 2015, Britain has cut back health budgets by over US$1 billion. In the United States, about one-fifth of the adult population is laid-off or their hours have been reduced. Problems have also emerged within the G7 countries, affecting their capacity to set the global agenda.

Two distinct but related trends can be seen. The West is re-evaluating globalization; China and India are re-thinking the role of Asia. As the only two countries who instituted total lockdown from the beginning of COVID-19, they have kept infections and deaths relatively low.

The globalized division of labor with specialization producing efficiency benefited the West more than China or India, but hard work provided an avenue for both countries to get back on their feet early. This development increased their tensions with the West and some analysts expect a major reshuffling of the global production network as a result of the pandemic, which was already triggered by the China-U.S trade war.

Developed economies are saddled with structural and institutional impediments that have led to social and political divisions as well as stifled economic growth. Their response to the pandemic has called into question their capacity and competence of governance. Household debt is over US$14 trillion in the United States, exposing flaws in its economic structure. The pandemic could cause the first time that poverty has increased globally in 30 years since 1990.

At the same time, whereas a group of 24 emerging markets including China, India, South Africa and Brazil had a net inflow of investments of US$79 billion in 2019, US$70 billion of investments exited those countries in the last two months alone, according to the Institute of International Finance. The UNCTAD estimates that the global foreign direct investment (FDI) will drop by 30 to 40 percent during 2020-2021.  

The question before China and India is whether a collaborative effort can build a more inclusive and sustainable world.

First, in the lockdown, a great leveler, social and economic rights have triumphed over political and procedural rights, which is a seismic shift for the United Nations.

Second, global trade has given way to regionalization and bilateral deals. Phone calls secure essential materials rather than multilateral agreements.

Third, for the first time everyone experiences the same threat, providing an opportunity for new ideas from those who have weathered it better.

Fourth, with the service sector as the major component of GDP, data, the new energy, becomes the strategic resource for development of Artificial Intelligence.

Fifth, with middle-class income stagnating in the United States and Britain since the 1980s due to structural problems, a different conceptual framework from the one they set up is needed for global well-being.

New Chapter

Chinese Ambassador to India Sun Weidong has suggested “mutual respect and trust, consultation on an equal footing” to “write a new chapter in building a community with a shared future for mankind.” The two countries should discuss “big ideas” of a socially inclusive and open global order characterizing the ancient civilizations.

The Asian Century should be defined in terms of peaceful co-existence, instead of “divide and rule,” balance of power, or trade blocs. Non-interference in the internal affairs of others is another key lesson learned from the decline of the United States. Building a global community at comparable levels of well-being also requires rejecting intellectual property monopolies. Global public goods should include public health, crop research, renewables, and even artificial intelligence because profits come from shared data in a digital economy. Currency swap arrangements and an Asian special drawing right for trade and investment should be also part of the “shared future.”

The Asian Century will not be an exclusionary concept as its civilizational values provide a sound justification for new societal relationships, sharing innovation and sustainable development that resonate with a more equal world. 

The author is former Policy Adviser to the Executive Director of United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).